Total undiscounted cost of UK asbestos-related claims to the insurance market is expected to be around £11bn for the period 2009 to 2050, according to a research by Actuarial Profession’s UK Asbestos Working Party.
The research identified that the proportion of people suffering from mesothelioma that subsequently make a claim for compensation has almost doubled between 2004 and 2008.
Of £11bn figure, 90% relates to mesothelioma and over £9bn relates to the period 2009 to 2040, compared to £4.7bn of the working party’s 2004 estimate for the same period.
According to Actuarial Profession, the proportion of mesothelioma sufferers that have made a claim for compensation has increased from around one-third in 2004 to nearly two-thirds. This change, which was not expected in 2004, has become evident in recent years and explains most of the increase in total costs.
In addition, the working party has taken into account the Health and Safety Executive’s statisticians’ revised projections of the number of future deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, released in 2009, in conjunction with other projection models.
Brian Gravelsons, chairman of UK Asbestos Working Party, said: “Insurers will of course have already noticed the increased number of claims from mesothelioma sufferers, so these developments won’t be a surprise to them. However, the working party’s projections will provide the insurance industry with a consistent reference point to help it assess its asbestos liabilities.
“There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the future cost of asbestos claims, as the number of people that will be diagnosed with mesothelioma many years into the future cannot be accurately predicted. The working party will continue to monitor the emerging experience and update its projections accordingly.”